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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward formula. It commonly functions as a type of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your squad in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who engineered the largest resurgence receives the prize. In reality, it creates an annual debate about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring superior coaching or merely the greatest surprise.

Yet the current race is profoundly unique. The group of contenders is exceptionally deep. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been chaotic, with recent division winners declining and recent also-rans ascending together. During an normal season, a coach leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in this turbulent and entertaining year, he's facing five other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the ideal vote ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore quarterbacks. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right system, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his special talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent excellence. With Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an attack constructed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that springs wide receiver receivers everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to spin big plays from broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Almost each bet – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has worked. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the organization with the level of expectations he did. For two straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive genius but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a typical season, he would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet this isn't a normal season!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for sustained success. But he falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has mastered the leadership aspects, which wasn't a given following his initial public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff blend of new ideas and experience, Coen hired first-timers. From the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting consistent ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year case has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller might have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it defined it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away after that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still