🔗 Share this article

Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.

That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion

The duo have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.

Absence of Serious Debate

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.

Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they support unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."

Appeal for More Extensive Debate

Westminster should engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."